Break-even is the number of leads after which the channel earns instead of spends. It takes a minute to calculate and is almost always calculated wrong, because only the subscription lands in the cost column.
What to add up
Monthly cost is the subscription, accounts amortised over their expected life, proxies, model calls and your time. Accounts bought for six months cost a sixth of their price each month — that is the honest way to carry them.
What to divide by
Two numbers from your own business: average order value and the share of leads that ever pay. Multiply them and you get revenue per lead. Divide the monthly cost by that and you have your break-even count.
Where the arithmetic goes wrong
- Using order value instead of revenue per lead. If one in five pays, divide by five.
- Leaving your time out. Twenty hours a month is a salary, even when you pay it to yourself.
- Extrapolating from a good day. Look at a full month: it contains weekends, holidays and days when an account sat out a restriction.
When the model refuses to close
If the required lead count looks unreachable at your fleet size, the fix is not more accounts. Raise the order value, raise the close rate, or make the contact cheaper. Scaling a losing model only makes it lose faster — the signals for when scaling is safe are in this piece.