Choosing between CPA and RevShare looks like a matter of taste and is in fact arithmetic. It takes one step, but it needs a number a beginner does not have: how much a player brings over their whole lifetime.
What LTV means here
What the casino earns from the person you brought, over all time, multiplied by your share. The key words are «over all time»: a player who deposits once and leaves and one who plays for six months differ by orders of magnitude.
Which is why market averages are useless — the average between those two describes neither.
Calculating it without history
You cannot, and that is the honest answer. LTV is not predicted, it is measured. So the order is: first runs on CPA, accumulate history on your own players, then decide about switching. Three months is the minimum observation window.
The point where RevShare wins
A simple rule: RevShare wins if your average player brings more over the observation window than the CPA for that same player. Usually that lands in month two or three — if the players stay.
If they do not stay, RevShare will never overtake, however long you wait. And that is the important conclusion: RevShare is not «the better model», it is a bet on the quality of your traffic.
What determines whether they stay
- The source. Someone from a specialised chat plays longer than someone from a random list — by multiples, not percentages.
- Expectations. Someone brought in by a promise of easy money leaves after the first loss. Someone brought in honestly stays longer.
- The product. An awkward withdrawal process destroys retention more reliably than anything you do.
The first item is entirely within your control. How to pick sources is in choosing chats.
Put real numbers in. At 1win Partners CPA reaches $250 and revshare starts at 50%. So: at half of what the casino earns, revshare overtakes the maximum CPA once your average player brings the casino more than $500 over the observation window. Less than that and it never overtakes — take the fixed payout.
Hybrid as a compromise
A reduced CPA plus a reduced share. Sensible in exactly one situation: you are past beginner, but you have no history for this particular geo yet. Hybrid funds current costs without cutting off future income.
How the cost of the traffic itself adds up is in what an account fleet costs.